Tension over Taiwan: Wargaming essential as China maneuvers for potential military invasion

The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan leads a mass formation of ships from Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, France, Canada, Australia and the U.S. during Rim of the Pacific 2010. RIMPAC is the world's largest international maritime exercise. Since 1971, this large-scale biennial exercise has been designed to increase mutual cooperation and enhance the tactical capabilities of participating nations in various aspects of maritime operations at sea.

For more than 75 years, the island nation of Taiwan has battled back against regular aggression from the Chinese Communist Party with military force and building ally relationships to blunt a potential invasion.  With the recent news of a $2 billion arms deal from the U.S. to Taiwan, China conducting wargames for the second time in less than six months, the recent U.S. presidential election, tensions and uncertainty about the future of the country and its precious semiconductor and computer chip industry are ever increasing. 

One tool the Taiwan Ministry of Defense has utilized in its defense and military development since 2003 is Valkyrie Enterprises’ Joint Theatre Level Simulation – Global Operations (JTLS-GO) wargaming and simulation program.  JTLS-GO is a NATO-backed simulation and analysis tool for multi-domain and joint operations. 

If a conflict were to break out between Taiwan and China, an event Chinese President Xi Jinping declared as “inevitable” in a 2023 address, Taiwan must consider multiple factors, including geography, logistics, and politics, to achieve victory.  JTLS-GO is a tool that lets military leaders turn those factors into data, allowing them to make informed decisions to defend their nation. 

Several countries would get pulled into this hypothetical war.  China could see support from Russia and North Korea. Taiwan could see the U.S., Japan, Australia, the European Union, and other regional allies come to its aid.   

JTLS-GO enables users, like Taiwan and more than 15 other countries, to plan and optimize the deployment of military forces and assets during a potential conflict scenario.  By simulating different force deployments, Taiwan and its allies can assess the effectiveness of differing strategies, identify gaps or vulnerabilities, and make logical decisions on resource allocation. 

This pro-Taiwan coalition force would be battling one of the most advanced military operations in the world.  China possesses a vast military superiority in soldiers, sea, air, and cyber only rivaled by the U.S.  These include ballistic missiles, amphibious assault vessels to storm Taiwan’s shores, and sophisticated cyber warfare capabilities to target critical infrastructure and military systems.   

China could also seek to isolate Taiwan from receiving international support by deploying a naval blockade to choke supply lines and through diplomacy and propaganda to undermine Taiwan’s sovereignty. 

JTLS-GO doesn’t factor in diplomatic pressure but can provide intelligence assets to detect and reveal an enemy’s capabilities and intentions.  By better understanding a potential situation and what moves may be next, Taiwan and its allies can move into a proactive position in a conflict scenario. 

Taiwan won’t surrender without a fight.   

The island nation invests significant dollars in its defense capabilities with advanced missile systems, cyber warfare technology, air defense, naval assets, and well-trained soldiers.   

China also faces geographic challenges with Taiwan’s cliffs and limited ports to dock. 

JTLS-GO helps countries, like Taiwan, plan for the future by wargaming in the present.  This dynamic resource could be the difference between victory and surrender if one side is ill-prepared to make timely and effective decisions during a conflict. 

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